A Brief Breeders Cup Observation

I know it's supposed to be really cool to have celebs call out, "Ladies and gentlemen, riders up" before each race.

But honestly, it's just not the same as, "Ladies and gentlemen, START YOUR ENGINES!"

What Took Them So Long?

Last week the National Thoroughbred Racing Association (NTRA) announced the creation of a Safety and Integrity Alliance to help clean up horse racing. This Alliance vows to get standardized medication laws in each state, ban steroids from racing altogether, improve safety and security measures for horse and jockey, and treat racehorses better post-racing career.

Sounds great, right? Well, of course.

So how come this measure doesn't yet have any teeth?

Right now the Alliance is a purely voluntary organization. Racetracks vow to follow the measures set forth by the Alliance and are recognized as doing such, but from what I can gather, there is no penalty - so far - to not following these rules. Former WI governor Tommy Thompson and his law firm are there to oversee the Alliance and call it on its foibles. So what's to stop a chastised racetrack from dropping out of the Alliance altogether and going back to letting its horses use steroids?

The Alliance, of course, hopes to get state legislatures on board. Well, sure. But here's yet another hole in the plan. You've got to get those legislatures to all agree. Do you really think you're going to get 50 states' worth of agreement? There aren't even specifics available yet except for following something general called 'House Rules' - and I'm not even sure what that means. I'm listening to a podcast from NTRA on this very issue, and all I can gather is, there are several areas they want to fix in thoroughbred racing, but they don't have the specifics yet. In short, they're telling us what they're going to do, not what they have done.

Great. Then tell me how you're going to accomplish this. They wouldn't even go into how this is going to be paid for. Since NTRA is not a governing body (like, say Major League Baseball or the NFL) it has no real authority. It's a figurehead, of sorts. It's relying on the individual states - indeed, the individual tracks - to follow these rules, even if there's an initial cost to doing so. Racetracks are seeing a drop in the amount of money bet, in a downturn economy, in a sport that has suffered for years from hardly any promotion and lots of tragedy. Curlin should be on the cover of Sports Illustrated. But ask the average sportsfan who he is, and you'd get blank stares. So what makes this group think racetracks, hurting to stay open as it is, are going to do anything without the promise it's going to make them money? Are they simply relying on racing fans who say they'll show up if the horses are treated more humanely?

Look, let's call a spade a spade. Racing slowly sputtered to awareness after the deaths of Barbaro and Eight Belles only because the public became vocally pissed off. Really, it hadn't done much following Barbaro's death (although synthetic tracks were, to be fair, being studied). It was Eight Belle's purely accidental death in the Kentucky Derby that got fans and others in a howl of rage - one that was long in coming. NTRA's announcing this ahead of the first Breeders Cup to be steroid free on an artificial surface (untested, no less, at Santa Anita) is no coincidence, despite what the conference call says. Otherwise they wouldn't come running to us to say, "Look at how thoughtful we're being!"

All of these changes are vastly overdue. And while I'm encouraged that this group exists and several tracks - including Michigan's own Pinnacle - have signed on, I don't see details. I don't see enforceable rules with penalties. I don't even see specific guidelines, merely areas to be explored. Maybe there are specifics but I don't see them posted on NTRA.com, which is where members of the media were told to go if they hadn't gotten the release sent to them. If there were more specifics available, they haven't been posted or I can't find them.

I know how touchy our state legislature is and how tight the budget is. I don't see the Agriculture budget being raised just for one racetrack for an ambiguous goal without any benchmarks or penalties. I see it being ignored. Heck, the state racing commissioner's office hasn't even commented yet.

I'm, to be sure, happy that these topics are being addressed. Fact is, they should have been addressed 30 years ago, but racing was happy enough not to rock the boat if nobody was complaining. It took righteous outrage, PETA protests, and lots of negative media coverage for the racing body to pick up its head and realize there was trouble in the paddock.

So here's what I say. Okay, NTRA. It's time for you to step up to the starting gate to show us whether you've got any real influence at all. It's time to show us you're the stallion in the barn and get those uniform rules drafted and proposed and implemented. Otherwise, frankly, you're just a gelding who long ago should have been put out to pasture.

Derby Picks

I meant to post this last night, but circumstances prevented it. So here are my Derby picks:

As much as I like Big Brown and how he looks, how he trains, how much everyone is raving about him, I'm always leery about a Derby favorite. The Derby doesn't always go to the best horse, and with Big Brown's lack of seasoning and brittle feet, I'm concerned about him. That said, I'd be just as happy if he won. (In fact, I'm always happy if all the horses come through the race without injury.) But I'm going this way instead:

Win: Colonel John
Place: Pyro
Show: Eight Belles

If Colonel John likes the surface and can fend off Big Brown, he can do it. I still think Pyro is a better horse than the Blue Grass indicates and I think people overlook him to their peril. And in the era of Danica Patrick, even though she's never raced against the boys, I'm giving Eight Belles some love. (Great picture of her in the USA Today 'meet the entrants' slide show. I couldn't download it to show it here though.)

The Kentucky Derby Field Part 2

Z Humor 30-1
PP 11 Rene Douglas Bill Mott

In his most recent start, this stalking horse finished third in the Illinois Derby behind Recapturetheglory. In the Sam F Davis, he stayed just off the pace behind Smooth Air and then pounced on the backstretch, battling Fierce Wind for the lead, then falling off. He ended up finishing fifth. Then in the Fountain of Youth with several other Derby hopefuls, he ended up finishing fourth behind eventual winner Cool Coal Man. He hasn’t won this season in three starts, last winning in December in the Delta Jackpot. His pedigree says he can do it – his sire Distorted Humor, sired 2003 Kentucky Derby winner Funny Cide – and he has AP Indy on his dam’s side, but he hasn’t shown us yet that there’s a big Grade I win in him. Still, you might consider him for a trifecta or superfecta.

Smooth Air 20-1
PP 12 Manoel Cruz Bennie Stutts Jr.

He sat just off the pace in the Sam F Davis, second, then fifth, eventually finishing third behind Fierce Wind and Big Truck. This was his first race stretching out to a mile and an eighth. In the Florida Derby, eventually won impressively by Big Brown, he ran up to be a pacesetter with Fierce Wind (those names just seem to tie together, don’t they?). When Big Brown took over early, he fell back but made a nice move on the far turn to try to catch up; there was no way Smooth Air was going to catch him, but he ran well in that race – he would have won by seven lengths if not for Big Brown. He came down with a fever Derby week but he appears to be training just fine and is well. However, he had some trouble in the paddock with the noise earlier this week, which tells me he might be upset by the Derby Day chaos. But he’s performed well in high class company, so I think he’s a viable threat if the noise doesn’t upset him.
Plus I just love those yellow 'socks'!!

Bob Black Jack 20-1
PP13 Richard Migliore James Kasparoff

He took the early lead in the San Felipe Stakes, setting reasonable fractions. Georgia Boy eventually won the race and Bob Black Jack finished third, but he was less than a length behind the winner, so not too shabby. Still, he’s known as a sprinter, and they don’t do well at the classic mile and a quarter Derby distance. Plus, this is his first trip on dirt instead of synthetics, which makes me cautious. He also went toward the lead in the Santa Anita Derby with a few other horses, then took on leader Coast Guard with 3/8^ths of a mile left to go. He took the lead late, but couldn’t hold off the charging Colonel John, so he finished a game second, which is nothing to be ashamed of. Still, frontrunners don’t tend to do as well during Derby Day, and so far he’s shown to be more consistent at 7 furlongs and a mile, so this one may be just too long for him.

Monba 15-1
PP14 Ramon Dominguez Todd Pletcher

So which horse are we going to get Saturday? The one who ended up dead last in the Fountain of Youth with an injury, or the one who won the Blue Grass on Polytrack by a neck over Cowboy Cal? Those are the only two races he’s run this season, so it’s hard to judge his skill based on those two alone. In three previous races he had two wins and a fourth place, nothing that grabs me. He likes to be off the pace, which should keep him out of too much traffic, and he has a previous win at the Churchill Downs track in an allowance last fall, so we know he likes the track. His pedigree does say he can do the distance, and he does have Todd Pletcher, who is just itching for his first Derby win. I’m a little leery of putting a lot of money down on him based on those two performances though, especially since so many horses didn’t seem to like the synthetic surface of the Keeneland track in the Blue Grass. I’m a little surprised at the 15-1 morning line odds for this horse, because of the possibility he could bounce off that Blue Grass win.

Adriano 30-1
PP15 Edgar Prado Graham Motion

This beautiful chestnut won an allowance in January at Gulfstream on the turf. Then he sat well off the pace in the Fountain of Youth and never fired, finishing ninth. After that he charged up into view in the Lane’s End – sitting off the pace in fourth then taking the lead along the backstretch and winning impressively while fending off other challenges. That’s the last look we’ve had at him; he hasn’t run since mid-March and he hasn’t won on conventional dirt. Despite his excellent pedigree, ex jockey Gary Stevens thinks he’s a synthetic track runner, not dirt. He’s also known to be high-strung, and they’re schooling him with earplugs to keep him calm. That worries me more than anything else. It’s going to be noisy and busy – can he handle it? On the other hand, he’s experienced and he can definitely do the distance. Consider him for trifectas, superfectas and the like.

Denis of Cork 20-1
PP16 Calvin Borel David Carroll

In the Grade III Southwest Stakes, this lightly-framed horse settled in just behind the leaders, didn’t get squashed by a hot pace, came up with a 16^th of a mile left and won the race. He was undefeated at that point in three efforts and we already know he likes Churchill Downs where he won his first race, a maiden special weight. Then came the Illinois Derby, a lackluster effort in which he finished fifth. The son of Harlan’s Holiday out of an Unbridled mare has a distance pedigree, and he’s got the perfect running style for the Derby, but it sounds like even though he’s working well, he’s the kind of horse who has one late shot at it coming down the stretch. He’s going to have to hope he can get clear and give it his all. On the up side, he has Calvin Borel, last year’s Derby winner on Street Sense, so it stands to reason he’ll be on the rail at some point in the race – he just has to hope, with his late running style, that he doesn’t get caught in traffic.

Cowboy Cal 20-1
PP17 John Velazquez Todd Pletcher

While you probably haven’t heard a lot about this horse, he’s from the Todd Pletcher barn and he has John Velazquez aboard, and that’s a mighty duo. He’s got a lovely pedigree from Giant’s Causeway – which often means a preference for turf - and he has a strong finishing kick, so his pedigree and connections make him dangerous, but his surface choices make him a question mark. He jumped out to the lead in the Blue Grass with Cool Coal Man just behind him, but wasn’t able to overtake Monba when Monba charged up to take the win. So this is another case of, is he a Polytrack horse, or can he do dirt too? He’s had a win in the Tropical Park Derby this year, a second in the Hallandale Beach Stakes – both turf races - and that second in the Blue Grass. Since the Blue Grass was such a weird race, I’m still not sure how he’s going to do on the Churchill Downs track because his wins have been on turf and his workouts have been on Polytrack, which tends to appeal to turf horses. He’s expected to sit off the pace and he could be in great shape to pounce at the top of the stretch. Still, he’s unproven on dirt and hasn’t shown us yet he can play on the dirt surface with the big boys.

Recapturetheglory 20-1
PP18 E.T. Baird Louie Roussel III

He held on solidly throughout the Illinois Derby, holding off challenges from Atoned, Denis of Cork, Golden Spikes and Z Humor to win his first graded stakes race – the first he’d ever run in, as a matter of fact. His previous win was a maiden special weight last September at Hawthorne; in 2008 he finished third in an allowance at Churchill Downs, and reports say he ran very well in that race. While his Illinois Derby win was well done, he did have the rail there, and only two races prepping him for the Derby this year and a limited lifetime of experience makes me question whether he can win this race. Then again, War Emblem came off of the Illinois Derby in 2002 to win both the Derby and the Preakness. But Recapturetheglory doesn’t quite seem like War Emblem material, yet anyway.

Gayego 15-1
PP19 Mike Smith Paulo Lobo

He won the Arkansas Derby on traditional dirt after winning on the California tracks, many of which have already switched to synthetic surfaces, which are said to be easier on the horses and cause fewer fatal injuries. This son of Gilded Time, a sprinter, may not be ready for the distance, but he sat just off the pace in Arkansas instead of sprinting to the lead and kicked it into gear to win over Z Fortune. He stayed with frontrunner Bob Black Jack early on in the San Felipe, and almost survived a challenge by Georgie Boy, who went on to win it. His pedigree is the question – can a son of Gilded Time do this distance? He’s being called a game horse personality-wise, which means he’ll gut it out, and his workouts have been good, including in the slop. Plus he’s got tactical speed. And he has Mike Smith on board, and Mike knows what he’s doing. I like this horse even with his pedigree and concerns about him going the distance. His personality tells me he could be a threat, especially if he can sit just off the pace and let Mike steer.

Big Brown 3-1
PP20 Kent Desormeaux Richard Dutrow

The Kentucky Derby favorite’s first win was on the turf, and his second two on the dirt, so he’s going into the Derby undefeated, but after only three starts. In the Florida Derby, he ran such a gorgeous race that he immediately caught everyone’s attention. But is he experienced enough? Has he beaten tough competition? Does his pedigree lend itself to distance? And how are his feet, since he has problems with them? That’s what worries me the most . I liked his Florida Derby win a lot, but everybody liked Bellamy Road a few years back on a similar effort, and nobody has a clue where he is now. I’d like to see Big Brown run a few more races. That said, his run in Florida was lovely – nice fractions, good stamina, a decisive beautiful victory. I can’t count him out, not even with this post position. He’s less likely to get caught in traffic, he doesn’t have to take the lead, and I’m hoping he’ll live up to all the hype. Plus he’s schooling in the paddock like a pro – the noise doesn’t seem to bother him. And how can you go wrong if you’ve got Dale Jarrett rooting for you? Yes, he’s named for UPS.

The Kentucky Derby Field Part 1

Here's the first half of the full field - the second half will come tomorrow. The notes are as follows: Horse's name, odds; second line is Post Position, Jockey, Trainer.

Cool Coal Man 20-1
PP1 Julien Leparoux Nick Zito

This son of former Horse of the Year Mineshaft and grandson of amazing sire AP Indy should have the pedigree and class to go the distance, and he’s got a few races under his saddle cloth to show for it. His last race wasn’t great – he finished ninth in the Blue Grass ahead of Pyro but behind winner Monba – maybe due to not liking the synthetic surface. Prior to that he won the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream by hanging off the pace. He’s already won an allowance over the Churchill Downs track, but it was an allowance. The post position shouldn’t hurt him, and he beat quite a few of these other horses in the Fountain of Youth, so with his pedigree, connections, jockey and history, he’s a real threat.

Tale of Ekati 15-1
PP2 Eibar Coa Barclay Tagg

The Louisiana Derby – won by Pyro – was his 2008 debut. He started out dead last after a bad break and ended up sixth, not showing much at all. He settled into fourth at the start of the Wood Memorial behind the front-running War Pass, then moved up into second, challenging the hard-running War Pass and winning at the wire by a nose. Those were his only two starts this year. He’s got a lovely pedigree, descended from such greats as Storm Cat and Sunday Silence, but I haven’t seen enough to be sure he can beat 19 other horses in the Derby, despite his nice Wood Memorial win.

Anak Nakal 30-1
PP3 Rafael Bejarano Nick Zito

By the Derby runner-up and Belmont winner Victory Gallop, Anak Nakal has the pedigree to go the distance, and he had a nice career at 2, but he’s never quite impressed at 3. Trained by powerhouse Nick Zito, he won the Kentucky Jockey Club last November and has failed to finish in the money since then. He was nowhere to be seen in the Fountain of Youth and finished eighth. He had a poor effort in the Rebel too, finishing 7^th and casting doubt on his three-year-old ability. In the Wood Memorial, he finished fifth. He’s never really showed us he can handle a race like the Derby and win it.

Court Vision 20-1
PP4 Garrett Gomez Bill Mott

Two thirds in two starts this year – in the Fountain of Youth and later the Wood Memorial – mean this strong closer isn’t getting as close as he needs to mount his finishing charge. Trainer Bill Mott is putting him in blinkers, and based on reports of strong yet relaxed workouts from trackside experts this week, I think we haven’t seen his best. His pedigree says he can do the distance, but he’s got to get it together and charge hard. To his benefit, Mott says this horse can be on the rail, out wide, it doesn’t much matter. Being flexible will serve him well in the chaos of Derby day. On top of that he has jockey Garrett Gomez aboard, the nation’s leading rider last year. Neither one has a Derby win – yet.

Eight Belles 20-1
PP5 Gabriel Saez Larry Jones

This is the race’s lone filly – a large dark roan with a multi-hued tail who is starting to remind a lot of people of another big roan filly – 1988 Kentucky Derby winner Winning Colors. She’s won her last four starts by a combined 30-plus lengths and she’s undefeated in 2008. Plus, she has nine races under her saddlecloth, so she’s experienced, and experience is helpful when dealing with bumping, noise and general chaos on Derby Day. She’s working out great this week, she has an impressive pedigree as a daughter of Unbridled Song, and she likes to sit off the pace. In short, she’s in peak condition for a Derby win. Trainer Larry Jones, who you may remember had last year’s Hard Spun, likes the girls to run against the girls and the boys to run against the boys, but he likes her so much, he’s willing to ignore that. Only three fillies have done it – besides Winning Colors there were Regret and Genuine Risk, but so far Eight Belles looks like she could be the fourth.

Z Fortune 15-1
PP6 Robby Albarado Steve Asmussen

Not to be confused with Z Humor, Z Fortune’s only win this year was in the Lecomte in January, but he’s behaved respectably since then. He’s been second in the Risen Star behind the hard-charging Pyro, and second in the Arkansas Derby, but then there’s the fifth in the Rebel. He’s got great connections in star trainer Steve Asmussen and star jockey Robby Albarado, and he likes to lay close to the lead, which should hopefully keep him out of traffic trouble. His trainer is concerned though that he’ll bounce in this race, since his last race was a tough one – meaning, he’ll have a poor effort. He’s not working out as well as some of the other horses, but he looks well muscled and took his paddock schooling lesson this week like a pro. I’d be surprised if he got up to win it all, since this is his first Grade One test, but I don’t think he’ll embarrass himself either.

Big Truck 50-1
PP7 Javier Castellano Barclay Tagg

The longest priced shot on the board is coming off a clunker in the Blue Grass, where he finished 11^th – might have been the synthetic surface. Prior to that he’d done well enough – a close second in the Sam F Davis and a win in the Tampa Bay Derby. What I’m hearing is that he takes a while to get into stride, so the longer distance could be more to his liking than some of the other horses. He just hasn’t done enough to gather a lot of attention. His pedigree isn’t spectacular, although he does have Derby winner Go for Gin on his dam’s side. Still, his sire was a sprinter, and one of two things will happen with Big Truck – he’ll finally hit his stride JUST in time to make a difference in the race, or he’ll find a mile and a quarter just too far. I wouldn’t bet money on him to win, but the Daily Racing Form says you might consider him for a trifecta or superfecta.

Visionaire 20-1
PP8 Jose Lezcano Michael Matz

This late runner is trained by Michael Matz, trainer of the late Barbaro, so you know he’s in good hands. His fifth in the Blue Grass was his most recent start; prior to that this year he won the Gotham and came in third in the Risen Star – there was no way anybody was going to beat Pyro in that race. The Gotham is hard to handicap, though, considering the heavy fog that caused the track announcer to finally just say, “The three-year-olds have disappeared,” and when they reappeared, Visionaire was nipping Texas Wildcatter at the wire. The big question with him is distance – does he have the ability to handle a mile and a quarter? His workouts are pretty awful, so I’m hearing, so they’re not worth banking on. I do hear however that if the track comes up sloppy, he’s the horse to bet on, as his win in the Gotham was in the slop. I don’t dislike him, I’m just concerned that as a deep closer, he’s going to get caught in traffic. If he can get clear and the leaders tire, he might make you some money.

Pyro 8-1
PP9 Shawn Bridgmohan Steve Asmussen

Pyro was the golden boy of the set after War Pass defected due to an injury – and then he stunk it up in the Toyota Blue Grass at beautiful Keeneland, finishing tenth on the synthetic surface. He’d turned on some heavy afterburners prior to that in the Risen Star and the Louisiana Derby – both on dirt. He likes to sit off the pace and then hit the gas, so he remains a legitimate threat, and I’m just as happy to throw out the Blue Grass. He looks great, according to trackside reports, and he’s working out very well. He’s also got trainer Steve Asmussen behind him, and Steve is racing’s latest training star. A soft-spoken bearded man, Steve knows talent – he trained last year’s Horse of the Year Curlin, after all. Don’t let all the naysayers talk you out of this horse – I still like him and I still think he’s got things to show us – as long as he stays on dirt.

Colonel John 4-1

PP10 Rafael Bejarano Eion Harty

The class of the West Coast, this son of two-time Breeders Cup Classic winner Tiznow has won four of six races and never finished worse than second. The big question is, is he just a synthetic surface horse? Three of those wins have come at Santa Anita, which is a synthetic surface, like most California surfaces. That includes the Santa Anita Derby. Colonel John likes to sit just off the pace and he’s run well in his races this year. There’s a lot to like about this talented horse, the question just remains, can he handle regular dirt tracks? The buzz is he can and his workouts say that too. I like him a lot. His works have been fast, he looks great, and he’s starting to get a lot of attention.