Here's the first half of the full field - the second half will come tomorrow. The notes are as follows: Horse's name, odds; second line is Post Position, Jockey, Trainer.
Cool Coal Man 20-1
PP1 Julien Leparoux Nick Zito
This son of former Horse of the Year Mineshaft and grandson of amazing sire AP Indy should have the pedigree and class to go the distance, and he’s got a few races under his saddle cloth to show for it. His last race wasn’t great – he finished ninth in the Blue Grass ahead of Pyro but behind winner Monba – maybe due to not liking the synthetic surface. Prior to that he won the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream by hanging off the pace. He’s already won an allowance over the Churchill Downs track, but it was an allowance. The post position shouldn’t hurt him, and he beat quite a few of these other horses in the Fountain of Youth, so with his pedigree, connections, jockey and history, he’s a real threat.
Tale of Ekati 15-1
PP2 Eibar Coa Barclay Tagg
The Louisiana Derby – won by Pyro – was his 2008 debut. He started out dead last after a bad break and ended up sixth, not showing much at all. He settled into fourth at the start of the Wood Memorial behind the front-running War Pass, then moved up into second, challenging the hard-running War Pass and winning at the wire by a nose. Those were his only two starts this year. He’s got a lovely pedigree, descended from such greats as Storm Cat and Sunday Silence, but I haven’t seen enough to be sure he can beat 19 other horses in the Derby, despite his nice Wood Memorial win.
Anak Nakal 30-1
PP3 Rafael Bejarano Nick Zito
By the Derby runner-up and Belmont winner Victory Gallop, Anak Nakal has the pedigree to go the distance, and he had a nice career at 2, but he’s never quite impressed at 3. Trained by powerhouse Nick Zito, he won the Kentucky Jockey Club last November and has failed to finish in the money since then. He was nowhere to be seen in the Fountain of Youth and finished eighth. He had a poor effort in the Rebel too, finishing 7th and casting doubt on his three-year-old ability. In the Wood Memorial, he finished fifth. He’s never really showed us he can handle a race like the Derby and win it.
Court Vision 20-1
PP4 Garrett Gomez Bill Mott
Two thirds in two starts this year – in the Fountain of Youth and later the Wood Memorial – mean this strong closer isn’t getting as close as he needs to mount his finishing charge. Trainer Bill Mott is putting him in blinkers, and based on reports of strong yet relaxed workouts from trackside experts this week, I think we haven’t seen his best. His pedigree says he can do the distance, but he’s got to get it together and charge hard. To his benefit, Mott says this horse can be on the rail, out wide, it doesn’t much matter. Being flexible will serve him well in the chaos of Derby day. On top of that he has jockey Garrett Gomez aboard, the nation’s leading rider last year. Neither one has a Derby win – yet.
Eight Belles 20-1
PP5 Gabriel Saez Larry Jones
This is the race’s lone filly – a large dark roan with a multi-hued tail who is starting to remind a lot of people of another big roan filly – 1988 Kentucky Derby winner Winning Colors. She’s won her last four starts by a combined 30-plus lengths and she’s undefeated in 2008. Plus, she has nine races under her saddlecloth, so she’s experienced, and experience is helpful when dealing with bumping, noise and general chaos on Derby Day. She’s working out great this week, she has an impressive pedigree as a daughter of Unbridled Song, and she likes to sit off the pace. In short, she’s in peak condition for a Derby win. Trainer Larry Jones, who you may remember had last year’s Hard Spun, likes the girls to run against the girls and the boys to run against the boys, but he likes her so much, he’s willing to ignore that. Only three fillies have done it – besides Winning Colors there were Regret and Genuine Risk, but so far Eight Belles looks like she could be the fourth.
Z Fortune 15-1
PP6 Robby Albarado Steve Asmussen
Not to be confused with Z Humor, Z Fortune’s only win this year was in the Lecomte in January, but he’s behaved respectably since then. He’s been second in the Risen Star behind the hard-charging Pyro, and second in the Arkansas Derby, but then there’s the fifth in the Rebel. He’s got great connections in star trainer Steve Asmussen and star jockey Robby Albarado, and he likes to lay close to the lead, which should hopefully keep him out of traffic trouble. His trainer is concerned though that he’ll bounce in this race, since his last race was a tough one – meaning, he’ll have a poor effort. He’s not working out as well as some of the other horses, but he looks well muscled and took his paddock schooling lesson this week like a pro. I’d be surprised if he got up to win it all, since this is his first Grade One test, but I don’t think he’ll embarrass himself either.
Big Truck 50-1
PP7 Javier Castellano Barclay Tagg
The longest priced shot on the board is coming off a clunker in the Blue Grass, where he finished 11th – might have been the synthetic surface. Prior to that he’d done well enough – a close second in the Sam F Davis and a win in the Tampa Bay Derby. What I’m hearing is that he takes a while to get into stride, so the longer distance could be more to his liking than some of the other horses. He just hasn’t done enough to gather a lot of attention. His pedigree isn’t spectacular, although he does have Derby winner Go for Gin on his dam’s side. Still, his sire was a sprinter, and one of two things will happen with Big Truck – he’ll finally hit his stride JUST in time to make a difference in the race, or he’ll find a mile and a quarter just too far. I wouldn’t bet money on him to win, but the Daily Racing Form says you might consider him for a trifecta or superfecta.
Visionaire 20-1
PP8 Jose Lezcano Michael Matz
This late runner is trained by Michael Matz, trainer of the late Barbaro, so you know he’s in good hands. His fifth in the Blue Grass was his most recent start; prior to that this year he won the Gotham and came in third in the Risen Star – there was no way anybody was going to beat Pyro in that race. The Gotham is hard to handicap, though, considering the heavy fog that caused the track announcer to finally just say, “The three-year-olds have disappeared,” and when they reappeared, Visionaire was nipping Texas Wildcatter at the wire. The big question with him is distance – does he have the ability to handle a mile and a quarter? His workouts are pretty awful, so I’m hearing, so they’re not worth banking on. I do hear however that if the track comes up sloppy, he’s the horse to bet on, as his win in the Gotham was in the slop. I don’t dislike him, I’m just concerned that as a deep closer, he’s going to get caught in traffic. If he can get clear and the leaders tire, he might make you some money.
Pyro 8-1
PP9 Shawn Bridgmohan Steve Asmussen
Pyro was the golden boy of the set after War Pass defected due to an injury – and then he stunk it up in the Toyota Blue Grass at beautiful Keeneland, finishing tenth on the synthetic surface. He’d turned on some heavy afterburners prior to that in the Risen Star and the Louisiana Derby – both on dirt. He likes to sit off the pace and then hit the gas, so he remains a legitimate threat, and I’m just as happy to throw out the Blue Grass. He looks great, according to trackside reports, and he’s working out very well. He’s also got trainer Steve Asmussen behind him, and Steve is racing’s latest training star. A soft-spoken bearded man, Steve knows talent – he trained last year’s Horse of the Year Curlin, after all. Don’t let all the naysayers talk you out of this horse – I still like him and I still think he’s got things to show us – as long as he stays on dirt.
Colonel John 4-1
PP10 Rafael Bejarano Eion Harty
The class of the West Coast, this son of two-time Breeders Cup Classic winner Tiznow has won four of six races and never finished worse than second. The big question is, is he just a synthetic surface horse? Three of those wins have come at Santa Anita, which is a synthetic surface, like most California surfaces. That includes the Santa Anita Derby. Colonel John likes to sit just off the pace and he’s run well in his races this year. There’s a lot to like about this talented horse, the question just remains, can he handle regular dirt tracks? The buzz is he can and his workouts say that too. I like him a lot. His works have been fast, he looks great, and he’s starting to get a lot of attention.
