Z Humor 30-1
PP 11 Rene Douglas Bill Mott
In his most recent start, this stalking horse finished third in the Illinois Derby behind Recapturetheglory. In the Sam F Davis, he stayed just off the pace behind Smooth Air and then pounced on the backstretch, battling Fierce Wind for the lead, then falling off. He ended up finishing fifth. Then in the Fountain of Youth with several other Derby hopefuls, he ended up finishing fourth behind eventual winner Cool Coal Man. He hasn’t won this season in three starts, last winning in December in the Delta Jackpot. His pedigree says he can do it – his sire Distorted Humor, sired 2003 Kentucky Derby winner Funny Cide – and he has AP Indy on his dam’s side, but he hasn’t shown us yet that there’s a big Grade I win in him. Still, you might consider him for a trifecta or superfecta.
Smooth Air 20-1
PP 12 Manoel Cruz Bennie Stutts Jr.
He sat just off the pace in the Sam F Davis, second, then fifth, eventually finishing third behind Fierce Wind and Big Truck. This was his first race stretching out to a mile and an eighth. In the Florida Derby, eventually won impressively by Big Brown, he ran up to be a pacesetter with Fierce Wind (those names just seem to tie together, don’t they?). When Big Brown took over early, he fell back but made a nice move on the far turn to try to catch up; there was no way Smooth Air was going to catch him, but he ran well in that race – he would have won by seven lengths if not for Big Brown. He came down with a fever Derby week but he appears to be training just fine and is well. However, he had some trouble in the paddock with the noise earlier this week, which tells me he might be upset by the Derby Day chaos. But he’s performed well in high class company, so I think he’s a viable threat if the noise doesn’t upset him.
Plus I just love those yellow 'socks'!!
Bob Black Jack 20-1
PP13 Richard Migliore James Kasparoff
He took the early lead in the San Felipe Stakes, setting reasonable fractions. Georgia Boy eventually won the race and Bob Black Jack finished third, but he was less than a length behind the winner, so not too shabby. Still, he’s known as a sprinter, and they don’t do well at the classic mile and a quarter Derby distance. Plus, this is his first trip on dirt instead of synthetics, which makes me cautious. He also went toward the lead in the Santa Anita Derby with a few other horses, then took on leader Coast Guard with 3/8ths of a mile left to go. He took the lead late, but couldn’t hold off the charging Colonel John, so he finished a game second, which is nothing to be ashamed of. Still, frontrunners don’t tend to do as well during Derby Day, and so far he’s shown to be more consistent at 7 furlongs and a mile, so this one may be just too long for him.
Monba 15-1
PP14 Ramon Dominguez Todd Pletcher
So which horse are we going to get Saturday? The one who ended up dead last in the Fountain of Youth with an injury, or the one who won the Blue Grass on Polytrack by a neck over Cowboy Cal? Those are the only two races he’s run this season, so it’s hard to judge his skill based on those two alone. In three previous races he had two wins and a fourth place, nothing that grabs me. He likes to be off the pace, which should keep him out of too much traffic, and he has a previous win at the Churchill Downs track in an allowance last fall, so we know he likes the track. His pedigree does say he can do the distance, and he does have Todd Pletcher, who is just itching for his first Derby win. I’m a little leery of putting a lot of money down on him based on those two performances though, especially since so many horses didn’t seem to like the synthetic surface of the Keeneland track in the Blue Grass. I’m a little surprised at the 15-1 morning line odds for this horse, because of the possibility he could bounce off that Blue Grass win.
Adriano 30-1
PP15 Edgar Prado Graham Motion
This beautiful chestnut won an allowance in January at Gulfstream on the turf. Then he sat well off the pace in the Fountain of Youth and never fired, finishing ninth. After that he charged up into view in the Lane’s End – sitting off the pace in fourth then taking the lead along the backstretch and winning impressively while fending off other challenges. That’s the last look we’ve had at him; he hasn’t run since mid-March and he hasn’t won on conventional dirt. Despite his excellent pedigree, ex jockey Gary Stevens thinks he’s a synthetic track runner, not dirt. He’s also known to be high-strung, and they’re schooling him with earplugs to keep him calm. That worries me more than anything else. It’s going to be noisy and busy – can he handle it? On the other hand, he’s experienced and he can definitely do the distance. Consider him for trifectas, superfectas and the like.
Denis of Cork 20-1
PP16 Calvin Borel David Carroll
In the Grade III Southwest Stakes, this lightly-framed horse settled in just behind the leaders, didn’t get squashed by a hot pace, came up with a 16th of a mile left and won the race. He was undefeated at that point in three efforts and we already know he likes Churchill Downs where he won his first race, a maiden special weight. Then came the Illinois Derby, a lackluster effort in which he finished fifth. The son of Harlan’s Holiday out of an Unbridled mare has a distance pedigree, and he’s got the perfect running style for the Derby, but it sounds like even though he’s working well, he’s the kind of horse who has one late shot at it coming down the stretch. He’s going to have to hope he can get clear and give it his all. On the up side, he has Calvin Borel, last year’s Derby winner on Street Sense, so it stands to reason he’ll be on the rail at some point in the race – he just has to hope, with his late running style, that he doesn’t get caught in traffic.
Cowboy Cal 20-1
PP17 John Velazquez Todd Pletcher
While you probably haven’t heard a lot about this horse, he’s from the Todd Pletcher barn and he has John Velazquez aboard, and that’s a mighty duo. He’s got a lovely pedigree from Giant’s Causeway – which often means a preference for turf - and he has a strong finishing kick, so his pedigree and connections make him dangerous, but his surface choices make him a question mark. He jumped out to the lead in the Blue Grass with Cool Coal Man just behind him, but wasn’t able to overtake Monba when Monba charged up to take the win. So this is another case of, is he a Polytrack horse, or can he do dirt too? He’s had a win in the Tropical Park Derby this year, a second in the Hallandale Beach Stakes – both turf races - and that second in the Blue Grass. Since the Blue Grass was such a weird race, I’m still not sure how he’s going to do on the Churchill Downs track because his wins have been on turf and his workouts have been on Polytrack, which tends to appeal to turf horses. He’s expected to sit off the pace and he could be in great shape to pounce at the top of the stretch. Still, he’s unproven on dirt and hasn’t shown us yet he can play on the dirt surface with the big boys.
Recapturetheglory 20-1
PP18 E.T. Baird Louie Roussel III
He held on solidly throughout the Illinois Derby, holding off challenges from Atoned, Denis of Cork, Golden Spikes and Z Humor to win his first graded stakes race – the first he’d ever run in, as a matter of fact. His previous win was a maiden special weight last September at Hawthorne; in 2008 he finished third in an allowance at Churchill Downs, and reports say he ran very well in that race. While his Illinois Derby win was well done, he did have the rail there, and only two races prepping him for the Derby this year and a limited lifetime of experience makes me question whether he can win this race. Then again, War Emblem came off of the Illinois Derby in 2002 to win both the Derby and the Preakness. But Recapturetheglory doesn’t quite seem like War Emblem material, yet anyway.
Gayego 15-1
PP19 Mike Smith Paulo Lobo
He won the Arkansas Derby on traditional dirt after winning on the California tracks, many of which have already switched to synthetic surfaces, which are said to be easier on the horses and cause fewer fatal injuries. This son of Gilded Time, a sprinter, may not be ready for the distance, but he sat just off the pace in Arkansas instead of sprinting to the lead and kicked it into gear to win over Z Fortune. He stayed with frontrunner Bob Black Jack early on in the San Felipe, and almost survived a challenge by Georgie Boy, who went on to win it. His pedigree is the question – can a son of Gilded Time do this distance? He’s being called a game horse personality-wise, which means he’ll gut it out, and his workouts have been good, including in the slop. Plus he’s got tactical speed. And he has Mike Smith on board, and Mike knows what he’s doing. I like this horse even with his pedigree and concerns about him going the distance. His personality tells me he could be a threat, especially if he can sit just off the pace and let Mike steer.
Big Brown 3-1
PP20 Kent Desormeaux Richard Dutrow
The Kentucky Derby favorite’s first win was on the turf, and his second two on the dirt, so he’s going into the Derby undefeated, but after only three starts. In the Florida Derby, he ran such a gorgeous race that he immediately caught everyone’s attention. But is he experienced enough? Has he beaten tough competition? Does his pedigree lend itself to distance? And how are his feet, since he has problems with them? That’s what worries me the most . I liked his Florida Derby win a lot, but everybody liked Bellamy Road a few years back on a similar effort, and nobody has a clue where he is now. I’d like to see Big Brown run a few more races. That said, his run in Florida was lovely – nice fractions, good stamina, a decisive beautiful victory. I can’t count him out, not even with this post position. He’s less likely to get caught in traffic, he doesn’t have to take the lead, and I’m hoping he’ll live up to all the hype. Plus he’s schooling in the paddock like a pro – the noise doesn’t seem to bother him. And how can you go wrong if you’ve got Dale Jarrett rooting for you? Yes, he’s named for UPS.
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